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As of November 9, local time in New York, the rate of change in international oil prices has reached -3.86%. As long as the increase in international oil prices in New York on Nov. 12 is controlled within 2 US dollars, the rate of change in the three countries will be on November 13. Fell below -4%. This means that at that time, the price cut of domestic refined oil products will open.
Analysts predict that domestic oil prices will be lowered early in the morning as early as tomorrow, and this round is expected to be reduced from 300 to 350 yuan/ton.
Although international oil prices oscillated upward last week, New York oil prices rose by 1.43%, and London oil prices rose by 3.52% on a weekly basis. However, as the proportion of days of falling oil prices in the continuous 22-day movement rate increased, the rate of change in the three regions continued to decline.
Both Zhuo Chuang Information and Treasure Island's data show that the latest three-site crude oil change rate is -3.86%. Zhu Huichun, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that according to the analysis model, if the international oil price closes on the 12th is controlled within 2 US dollars, on the 13th, the rate of change in the three regions will fall below -4%; if the international oil price on the 12th surges over 2% In the US dollar, the price adjustment window will open and be postponed. However, she believes that the possibility of soaring international oil prices is very small.
“After the U.S. election, the oil price changes are attributed to the fundamentals of supply and demand. At present, the U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff, the European debt crisis is still spreading, and the global economic growth rate will restrain oil demand. It is estimated that the possibility of continued soaring is unlikely. Changes in this week Rate-breaking is 4%," said Hu Huichun.
According to the regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, domestic oil prices can be adjusted after the rate of change in international oil prices has reached 4% and the interval between the last price adjustment reached 22 working days. The last time the oil price adjustment was September 11, the distance has now exceeded 22 working days.
Analysts predict that the price cut will be 300-350 yuan/ton. This is equivalent to a price increase of 0# for diesel and 0.26-0.3/l for diesel. 92# gasoline is priced at 0.23-0.27/l.
If the refined oil price is lowered, it will be the eighth time in the country to adjust the retail price of refined oil products, and this will be the fourth time in the year to cut oil prices. It is understood that the last product oil price adjustment was on September 11, when the retail price of gasoline was increased by 550 yuan/ton, and the retail price of diesel oil was increased by 540 yuan/ton. 