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Harriman Chemsult, headquartered in London, United Kingdom, pointed out that China has replaced the United States as the world's largest chlor-alkali supplier. In the next five years, with the new production capacity put into operation, China’s dominant position in the global market will continue to increase. China's chlor-alkali capacity has jumped from less than 1.5 million tons/year in 1980 to 14.1 million tons/year in 2006, accounting for 24% of the world's total capacity; by 2010, China's chlor-alkali capacity is expected to increase to 20 million. T/year, will account for about 30% of the total global production capacity. It also predicts that China's new chlor-alkali capacity will account for about 70% of global new capacity in the next five years. An expert from the company analyzed that the global chloro-alkali price has peaked in 2006 and will show a downward trend in the next two years. In addition, the world economy has begun to slow down, and a large number of new production capacity has been put into use successively. These are the unfavorable factors facing the global chlor-alkali industry.
The company also analyzed the soda ash industry. It is expected that the demand for soda ash in North America will be relatively stable this year. The growth in demand will come from the export market. The demand for soda ash in China is expected to increase by 10% to 12%, while that in Eastern Europe and India is expected to increase by 4% to 6%. 1%, South America increased by 5% to 7%. It is expected that no new capacity will be put into use in North America and Western Europe, while several new projects are under construction in Eastern Europe and Asia. This year, China will increase its capacity by 600,000 tons/year to 17.8 million tons/year.
For sodium chlorate products, North American demand is expected to continue to decline as the increase in imported pulp from South America leads to a large number of closed pulp mills in North America; Europe’s demand for sodium chlorate is relatively stable and is expected to grow slightly this year, as European pulp Exports to Asia have gradually increased. The South American region is the world’s main growth area for sodium chlorate, but due to the major joint construction with pulp mills, the amount of goods is small.
The world's rapid increase in chloralkali production capacity, especially in Asia, will result in a lower global chlor-alkali industry operating rate, a decrease in the profitability of the electrolytic chlor-alkali plant, and a drop in the combined price of chlorine and caustic soda. The United States "Chemical Weekly" made predictions last week. Steve Brien, CMAI's chlor-alkali and ethylene business project manager, analyzed that global chlor-alkali demand will increase by 3% this year. However, due to the rapid increase in production capacity will lead to reduced operating rates to 85% to 86%, Asian electrolysis chlor-alkali plant earnings will be negative, North America electrolysis device profit may continue to decline, and the downward trend will remain until mid-2008, but better than in Asia And European counterparts should be slightly better.