The coastal shipping freight rate is low

In the first half of the year, the coastal shipping market experienced an “unprecedented” downturn. Since June, the coastal (bulk) comprehensive freight index has hit new record lows. On June 14, the index fell below the 1,000-point mark for the first time, and it closed at 976.7 points on June 28. During the whole first half of the year, the average freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai was RMB 27/ton, which was basically the same as the price in the 1990s. However, the current operating cost has increased by nearly ten times. The current freight rate has been unable to cover fuel and Crew costs. On June 28, the sea freight rate of Qinhuangdao fell to RMB 23.6/ton. The downturn in the shipping market can be described as “horrible”.

The shipping market depression also affected the port. In June, the average number of ships waiting for coal loading on the Qinhuangdao anchor line was only 40, and the lowest was 26. In this northern coal shipping port, half of the berths are located in the port. "Sunbathing", and usually more than 140 ships loaded in this season, the market's degree of cooling and warming is "a world away."

Affected by the market downturn, after a significant loss in the first quarter, shipping listed companies again collectively predicted losses in the first half of the year, further deepening the loss level. Even some shipping companies with backgrounds of cargo owners or shippers holding their goods and supporting goods have suffered losses for the first time. Due to the possibility of liquidation of insolvency, some small private shipping companies in the second half of the year may be closed down at any time due to tight funding links.

Insufficient demand, excessive capacity increase, and sluggish ocean market are the three major factors that trigger the current shipping crisis. Due to the economic slowdown in China, the growth of electricity generation in the first half of the year slowed down, coal demand was weak, coupled with the impact of a large number of imported coal, domestic coal was sluggish for a time, and from January to May, coastal domestic coal coal production only increased by 0.6%. Basically, “zero” growth, and according to the port reflected in June as demand is still weak, then the first half is likely to be negative growth, the demand is seriously insufficient; while the new capacity is still inertia growth, according to the Ministry of Transport, as of the end of March this year, the coastal The capacity of dry bulk shipping has reached 50.62 million dwt. According to the calculation of 50 million tons/month of coastal coal domestic water, the above capacity is only enough for Qinhuangdao to ship and load coal. If it is shipped twice, it will be half the capacity. As the domestic market is seriously declining, the international dry bulk shipping market is also operating at the bottom of the history. The freight rates have continued to slump, which is not conducive to the absorption of shipping power and the difficulty of releasing the transportation capacity; in the above three “big mountains” Under pressure, market innovation is unavoidable.

The new government’s economic policy has adopted “stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting reforms” to maintain sustainable economic development and pay more attention to people’s livelihood and energy conservation and environmental protection. In the past, the extensive development model of energy consumption and environmental protection will become a thing of the past. The demand for bulk commodities, especially coal, is difficult to increase substantially. Coupled with the impact of foreign trade import, domestic coal demand will remain low, and inertial growth of capacity will be difficult to stop for a while. Therefore, for a long period of time, the coastal transportation market remains. Mainly to digest stock capacity capacity, the last two or three years of continuous low prices is inevitable.