Suddenly skyrocketing corn harvester market, sleeping for three years, wake up

The “empty window period” effect brought about by market transformation is affecting this year's agricultural machinery market comprehensively and profoundly. Agricultural machinery enterprises are experiencing the painful period that has not been encountered for many years. In the first half of the year, the tractor market entered the “ice age”, the grain combine harvester market fell sharply, the rice transplanter market plunged, and the growth of the dryer market stopped abruptly... In contrast, the corn harvester market grew against the trend. Even in the off-season in the first half of the year, it still showed an amazing growth rate. Under the combined effect of various favorable factors, the comprehensive corn harvester market is expected to achieve a major reversal throughout the year, sweeping over the past three years to cover the haze over the corn harvester market and out of the dilemma.

Bottom bottoming, the market has risen sharply

After experiencing a continuous decline from 2015 to 2017, the corn harvester market is expected to break out of the trough this year and rebound strongly. From the performance of the corn harvester market in the first half of this year, we can see the clue. According to market research, as of the end of June, China had sold a total of 7,136 corn harvesters, an increase of 32.64% over the same period last year.

In the first half of the year, the market demand for corn harvesters was quietly changing. On the one hand, from the year-on-year growth rate, the models at both ends increased sharply year-on-year. According to market surveys, 2 rows and 5 rows increased by 64.58% and 52.81% respectively. However, they accounted for a relatively small proportion of 18.04% and 3.81%, respectively, up 3.5 and 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. On the other hand, from the perspective of market share, focus on the intermediate model. As the intermediate model of the 3-line and 4-line machines, the year-on-year growth rate is inferior to the 2-line and 5-line models, which are 17.58% and 31.35% respectively, but the proportion has reached 27.37% and 50.78%, especially the 4-line model. , occupying half of the country. Due to the fact that the main market has not yet started in the first half of the year, the composition of market demand in the first half of the year was not convincing. With the arrival of the peak shipments in the second half of the year, we expect that the 3-line and 4-line models will come later, especially the 4-way machine, or it will become the main model of this year's market.

The substantial growth of the corn harvester market this year is not a single factor, but the result of the interaction of multiple factors. The following factors play an important role in market growth.

First, rigid demand remains the main driver of the market. China's corn harvester is still the lowest in the three major food crops. In 2016, it was only 66.68%, which was not only lower than the harvest level of wheat and rice, but also had a certain gap with the level of corn farming and machine broadcasting. This determines that the endogenous power of the corn harvester market is still relatively strong.

Second, corn prices rebounded. After experiencing the “three volumes increase” of domestic corn in 2015 (ie, import volume, purchase volume and inventory), the purchase price of corn temporary reserve was lowered to 1 yuan/kg for the first time. After that, the price of corn went down all the way, and the lowest fell to 0.25 yuan/ jin. In 2017, the price began to rebound strongly. In 2018, the price returned to 1 yuan/kg. Especially since November 2017, domestic corn futures have risen significantly, and it is expected that corn prices in 2018 are expected to remain strong. It is expected that the corn planting area will increase steadily this year, which will have a positive impact on the corn harvester market.

Third, the corn harvester market has fallen to the bottom after experiencing a “three-day losing streak”. The market has reached a certain height, and the bottoming out has become a powerful driving force to push this year's market.

Fourth, corn is China's largest food crop, with an annual output of about 230 million tons, of which 41% is forage, 36% is stock, and only 4% is consumed. Since last year, China's animal husbandry industry has entered a period of rapid development. With the rapid growth of feed demand, the demand for corn has increased, providing a good development environment for the corn harvester market.

The fifth is to update the pull. As another driving force for the market – update, this year will be a force. After the corn harvester market has experienced a three-year downturn, this year the market will enter a peak period of update, and the driving force for the market should not be underestimated.

Sixth is the subsidy. In the first half of the year, the agricultural machinery subsidy progressed slowly, and the amount of agricultural machinery subsidies in the second half of the year was sufficient, which provided a solid subsidy basis for the peak season sales.

Intense competition, reduced concentration

The corn harvester market is one of the most competitive markets in the traditional market. With the recovery of the market this year, competition has become more intense. According to market research, as of the end of June, the sales of the top six brands in terms of sales were “four liters and two drops”, with a cumulative sales of 4,503 units, an increase of 16.15% year-on-year; accounting for 63.1%, down 8.96 percentage points from the same period last year. Because the corn harvester market peak season is mainly concentrated in August and September of the second half of the year, some big brands have not yet made a force, and the market is competing for the key to see the second half.

Among the top six brands in the first half, Ju Ming, Ying Hu, Luoyang Ferguson and Dafeng showed different degrees of growth, with year-on-year growth reaching double digits. Luoyang Ferguson's growth rate reached three digits. At the same time, Shandong Shifeng and Lovol Heavy Industries experienced a large decline.

The competition in the corn harvester market focuses on four key factors: brand, service, price, and operational efficiency. Some brands have a large growth factor thanks to stable product quality, efficient work efficiency, and thoughtful after-sales service. Investors receive satisfactory income during the limited operating period of each year.

Better environment, multiple benefits to support market growth

In the second half of the year, in September, October and October, the corn harvester market will enter a strong sales model. Throughout this year's corn harvester market trend, the market will become the inevitable market development. This judgment can be supported by many favorable factors and multiple support forces faced by this year's corn harvester market.

Support 1: The demand for corn has increased sharply. From the perspective of corn import and export in recent years, the export value has experienced a decline in the past year after experiencing a substantial increase last year. On the contrary, after a two-year decline in imports, it has soared in the first five months of this year. This change suggests that after the stocks are effectively controlled, the market demand rebounds strongly, and this year's corn harvester market has outstanding features.

Support 2: Three arrows are in line, and the corn harvester market has strong factors.

First, the demand for feed farming ushered in development opportunities, highlighting signs of recovery. This is evident from the rapid growth in feed production last year and the rapid growth of the green forage harvester market (up to 28% year-on-year). While corn is the main source of feed, 41% of corn is used as feed, which provides a strong driving force for corn prices.

Second, corn prices will also warm up due to ethanol use, and the demand for fuel ethanol significantly boosts corn consumption. According to the current 30% yield of corn production ethanol, 10 million tons of fuel ethanol will drive 30 million tons of corn demand, accounting for about 15% of China's current corn production.

Finally, new changes have taken place in the adjustment of planting structure in the “Shovel Bay” area. After a two-year sharp reduction in corn planting area, the pace of the reduction has slowed down. According to market research, this year, due to the increase in corn prices, rice prices have declined, and corn planting area has expanded in the eastern region of Heilongjiang.

Support three: rigid demand is still relatively strong. As the first of the three major food crops, corn has a large market capacity, but the level of harvest is low. Statistics show that in 2016, China's corn harvest level was 66.68%, and it reached 68% in 2017. It belongs to the “squatting land” of the three major food crops. The relatively strong market rigidity has brought hope for growth in this year's corn harvester market. .

Support 4: The market is rising periodically. After the “three consecutive losses” in the corn harvester market, the market has become “squatting”. If the "three-day losing streak" of the corn harvester market in the past three years is regarded as the market, then the release of energy in the market will become inevitable this year. Therefore, it is not difficult to see that this year's corn harvester market will stabilize or become a reality under the combined effect of rigid demand and new demand. From the market update demand analysis, China corn harvester renewal cycle is about 4 years, and will enter the peak update period in 2018. It provides the necessary impetus for market transition.

Support five: regional market pull. In 2017, the mainstream areas of Huanghuaihai and northern corn harvesters fell across the board. These mainstream areas will be ushered in development opportunities driven by multiple favorable factors such as agricultural machinery subsidies and market updates. At the same time, many companies are beginning to focus on the corn harvester market in the southwest hilly region, and the new market will inject strong momentum into the new start of the corn harvester market this year and beyond.

Support 6: The drive for new products. The grain machine market, which has been brewing for many years, is mature in its products; the development of edible corn harvesters has also made great progress. These new products will provide new growth points for this year's corn harvester market from different sides. Good development opportunities.

In addition, the first half of the year was originally the off-season of the corn harvester market, but it has risen sharply year-on-year. In the second half of the year, with the arrival of the peak season, the market may further impact the high point. At the same time, this year's negative factors can not be ignored, such as the decline in investment income, decline in purchasing power, demand transformation, slow progress in the grain machine market, land circulation and scale are facing some difficulties.

Based on the analysis of the above factors, we expect that this year's corn harvester market will usher in a turnaround to achieve a gorgeous turn in market demand. It is expected that the annual sales volume will reach between 4.5-4.8 million units, an increase of more than 20%. The corn harvester market is about to enter a strong sales model, and this year's corn harvester market is worth looking forward to.